For Democrats, a Pivotal Night, but in Which Direction?

When 22 states selected Democratic delegates on a single twenty-four hours last month, the sheer scale of measurement made election nighttime tax returns hard to follow. Multimedia

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The vote on Tuesday could be decisive for the race between Senators and . With four states vote — , , and —there is less to maintain path of.

But with so much at stake, especially in Buckeye State and Texas, and with the legal proceeding in Lone-Star State more complicated than a simple primary, there will be no deficit of facts and analysis as the eventide unfolds.

There are some factors to watch.

SURVIVAL Type A consequence virtually everyone in presidential political relation will size up most intently is whether the consequences nudge Mrs. Bill Clinton to stop her attempt to go the first adult female elected president. The more than decisive the outcome, the easier her choice.

Should Mr. Obama expanse all four contests, her trusts will plainly be extinguished. Should she transport Buckeye State and Lone-Star State — as her husband, former President , said she must to reserve a shot at the nomination — she will no doubt fighting on to the adjacent large battle, on April 22 in Pennsylvania, and, perhaps, all the manner to the convention in Denver. Trickier to disable would be a split decision, in which Mrs. Bill Clinton won Ohio, for example, but lost Texas.

For people who desire to believe about possible permutations, maintain this 1 in mind. Because of the manner Lone-Star State allocates delegates, it is entirely possible that Mrs. Bill Clinton could win the popular ballot there but lose to Mr. Obama on delegates.

out OF THE gate In many elections, the first precincts reporting ballot sums make not intend much, because the sums bear small relation to the ultimate outcome. But the first tax returns in Texas, where all polls will fold by 9 p.m. Eastern time, may number a lot.

That is because they will stand for “early voting” from before Election Day, a section that the Bill Clinton political campaign sees important to its hopes.

Early voting could do up a 3rd of the turnout.

allies OF Clinton For much of the primary campaign, human ecology have been destiny. So Mrs. Clinton’s trusts in Buckeye State and Lone-Star State could turn on the turnout composition.

In Texas, Mrs. Bill Clinton desires the Latino constituency that have favored her in other states to loom as big as possible. Strategists in both political campaigns state it could be 40 percentage of the vote.

In Ohio, the cardinal is how much women predominate the electorate. Women have got been a bulk of Democratic primary voters, and the more than their share transcends 55 percent, the better for Mrs. Clinton.

Mrs. Bill Clinton is also focusing on Democrats in relatively conservative southern Ohio, the place part of her top ally in the state, Gov. Teddy Boy Strickland.

keys FOR OBAMA Critical constituencies include immature electors and African-Americans. One singular characteristic of Mr. Obama’s Ioway and South Carolina triumphs was that electors little than 30 turned out as heavily as those 65 and older.

Mr. Obama is counting on heavy turnout in university towns like Austin, Tex., and Columbus, Ohio.

Because of the apportioning of delegates, African-Americans inch Buckeye State and Lone-Star State could count more than than their estimated 15 percentage share of the electorate would suggest. That is why urban centres like Cleveland and Houston are cardinal to his strategy. His strategians are also watching blue-collars Buckeye State towns like Akron and Youngstown to estimate their success at peeling working-class voters, especially men, away from Mrs. Clinton.

mugwump inflow With a long path record in Democratic politics, Mrs. Bill Clinton prefers competitions limited to political party regulars. Mr. Obama have held the upper manus among independents.

Independents can vote in all four primary elections on Tuesday. Experts make not anticipate them to attain the degree that they did in the New Hampshire primary, which was more than than 40 percent.

Texas and Green Mountain State have got no political party registration. Buckeye State and Rhode Island allow mugwumps take part in either primary.

spiritual world factor Although thickly settled states predominate the headlines, little 1s sometimes have got an outsize function in the count for nominating delegates. Mr. Obama takes by roughly 150 delegates, depending on who is counting. He stays far short of the 2,025 needful for nomination.

Because Democrats apportion delegates in primary elections in proportionality to the popular vote, stopping point competitions sometimes go forth the campaigner who completes 2nd in the popular ballot with virtually the same figure of delegates as the winner.

Small Vermont, with one-tenth the delegates at interest in Texas, could have got a bigger consequence on the delegate race by adding as many as five to Mr. Obama’s Pb if he wins by a big border there.

WORKING THE procedure Mr. Obama, a one-time public organizer, have dominated caucus competitions that topographic point a insurance premium on political mechanics. The good news for Mrs. Bill Clinton is that the four states have got primaries. The bad news is the Lone-Star State Two-Step, which will include eventide caucuses to choose one-third of the delegates. Though Mrs. Bill Clinton is competing more than than aggressively in those caucuses than in some earlier states, a opportunity stays that she could win the primary ballot but lose adequate delegates in the caucuses as to project uncertainty on who “won” the state.

The more caucus turnout increases, the greater the challenge for Lone-Star State Democrats to administrate a procedure that insiders usually dominate. Buckeye State officials, criticized for their inadvertence of vote in the 2004 presidential contest, will confront similar diagnostic tests if turnout rushes as it have in earlier primaries.

putt ON Type A good face Campaigns always like as much attending as possible for their victories. Sometimes how quickly the news mass media study them finds that.

Pre-election polls point to a ill-proportioned race in the state with the earlier poll-closing time, Vermont. That could bring forth good news for Mr. Obama soon after its polls stopping point at 7 p.m. Polls in Ohio, where Mrs. Bill Clinton have led, stopping point 30 proceedings later. Rhode Islanders will vote until 9 p.m. Eastern time.